Could Portugal finally win it all?

Will there be more tears this time?

Eight years ago the tournament was held in Portugal. Eight years ago Portugal should have won it. They had the team - the home advantage - and an opponent in the final that they should beat. But we all know how it ended. The Greeks pulled off probably the biggest international shock of our time to win Euro 2004. Since then the Portuguese team has performed solidly in tournaments - 4th place in the 2006 World Cup, Quarter finalists in Euro 2008 and knocked out by the magical Spanish in the 2010 World Cup. However that elusive first major International trophy still alludes them!

At all the recent tournaments the Portuguese have looked promising and with the players they have they have consistently been seen as contenders to win. Could Euro 2012 be the tournament that breaks their reputation as nearly men?

The foundations for success are there - A very solid defensive. Perhaps the best in the tournament. The Real Madrid boys (Pepe, Coentrao) being the stand out defenders of the competition so far. I would go as far as saying Coentrao has been the best left back in the tournament. Not small praise considering who he is up against in that department - Ashley Cole and Phillip Lahm. Their midfield possess both the solid (Veloso, Moutinho, Meireles) and the spectacular (Nani and Ronaldo). They lack a potent goal scorer but Postiga holds the ball up extremely well and links with Ronaldo seamlessly and everybody knows about his goal scoring record which more than makes up for Postiga's lack of goals. Portugal also have the added strength of a wealth of options on the bench - both attacking and defensive. Custodio can be brought on to tighten up the midfield and in Nelson Oliveira and Silvestre Varela they have game changing attacking options. There main weakness is the lack of a world class goalkeeper something England, France, Germany and Spain all possess. And this could be their downfall. 

The Madrid boys could be key.

However they have a relatively kind draw. No game at this stage will be easy but the Portuguese should be considered heavy favorites to beat the Czechs; who despite qualifying top of their group were dismantled against a team (Russia) possessing pace and guile. This is something Portugal have bucket loads of. If they do manage to beat the Czechs (nothing is certain) they will face either France or Spain in the semi finals. Both will be tough fixtures - especially the Spanish. But the Portuguese are more suited to beating these two than if they had to face Germany, England or Italy. So in this respect the draw favors them. In fact the last time they faced the Spanish they won 4-0. And although they historically perform poorly against the French they would go in to the tie as favorites. If they do manage reach the final anything can happen as shown by their defeat to Greece eight years ago. 

Bento has got the Portuguese firing! 

I am not implying that winning the tournament is something the Portuguese will do. My point is that they have the resources to win it. They have a stigma of getting it wrong in big games - some even tipped them to finish bottom of Group D. However this is a different and more united side than in previous tournaments. The players are younger and more hungry for success. They have a manager in Bento who has managed to build a solid team and also incorporate the Ronaldo factor. It is easy to forget that they have the second best player in the world in their ranks and as we saw against Holland he can be just as effective for his country as he is for his club.

In fact if Portugal could be likened to one club team it would be Real Madrid (not surprising when you consider who is the Madrid manager). And of course Real Madrid beat the side many claim are the best club team ever to the league title last year. Can Portugal do the same?

The Ox. Theo, Young and Danny boy

You may have read my recent blog on the French and their chances at Euro 2012. If you didn't catch it here is a quick summary. The French are good and England better not forget it. Yet despite my conclusions on the French team I still believe that England are capable of beating them. In fact if Roy picks the right team I think we should beat them.

Technically France are a very good side. They keep the ball well in midfield and have quality wide players who can create a hat-full of chances if given half a chance. However as England have proved in the two warm up games against Norway and Belgium we are prepared to give up the ball and hit the other teams on the break. This is due to the players we have available compared to other top nations. Our best player with the ball (Jack Wilshere) is injured. France have Nasri, Cabaye and Ribery who are all technically very good on the ball. Yet this doesn't mean we are unable to compete. Are Chelsea really the best team in Europe? No of course not. But due to playing to their strengths they won the most illustrious competition in Europe. England have similar strengths and will have to play to them to have any chance against the French.

We have one of the best 'keepers in Europe. The best left back in Europe. Terry and Lescott are a solid partnership. And Glen Johnson is a lot better defensively than people give him credit for. This solid back four will be protected by the axis of Gerrard and Parker. Two players who wear their hearts on their sleeve and will fight for everything in the middle of the park and both are also very good on the ball. However the mystery will be about who will start on the wings and up front.

Can Welbeck replace his clubmate?

Here it becomes important to examine the French tactically. Their full backs - likely to be Evra and Debuchy - are both good players but tend to leave a lot of space in behind them. Their strength is in their attacking ability and therefore England will need to play wingers who are quick to exploit the space and who are also keen to track back. Both Walcott and Chamberlain fit this description. Their pace would force the French full backs to stay deeper and also maximize England's effectiveness on the break. The two Gunners used correctly could give England the edge in a tight contest.

Ashley Young is almost certain to start in the hole behind the striker where he has been effective in the warm up games. This leaves just the striker. With Rooney unavailable for the game. Should it be Welbeck or Carroll who start upfront? Looking at the French side I would plump for Danny boy. Mexes and Rami tend to leave a lot of space between them as they are often given extra protection by the two defensive midfielders Blanc likes to deploy. Welbeck can utilise his pace to exploit this gap. By doing what he does well and running in behind the defense. Carroll lacks the pace to trouble the French defense and would be unable to take advantage of the high line the French like to play.

So due to the way the French are likely to set up I think that are best chance of victory would be to start with the pacey front four of Walcott, Young, Welbeck and Chamberlain. This front four would also suit the style of play that best suits England as it would be able to create a solid 4-5-1 when we are defending.

Yet, we will probably end up starting Downing, Milner and Carroll losing the game and going out on penalties in the Quarter Finals.

Or maybe not?

jgeorge

Transfer Mill: Rumour and Assessment

Update and short analysis of this Summer's movements


Alan Dzagoev - £20m+ - Linked with Real Madrid, Manchester United and Chelsea

After his stellar performance against the Czech Republic it is clear Russia's hopes are down to the potent partnership of  Dzagoev and Arshavin. Sitting pretty in my Fantasy Football team, Dzagoev's performance will certainly have caught the eye up of some of Europe's elite clubs. Having racked up 153 games and 37 goals at CSKA Moscow along with 21 Russia caps and 6 goals at just 21, Dzagoev is indeed hot property. With the ability to find killer passes and run with the ball from midfield, Dzagoev stretched the Czech back four into submission. The babyfaced assassin, Dzagoev has been strongly linked with the Premier League and playing in the tough Russian Premier League should certainly be an excellent apprenticeship. Although other Russian stars have failed to make a strong impact in England, Arshavin, Zhirkov and Pavlyuchenko for example, I believe Dzagoev has the appetite and determination to succeed. As the Euro 2012 competition continues I'm sure we will see his asking price rocket.


Dorlan Pabón -  £5m-£8m - Strongly linked with Galatasaray, also Roma, Rubin Kazan and Tottenham Hotspur

This 24 year old Colombian who plays for his native Atletico Nacional is on the wishlist of many European clubs this Summer. It seems as if Glatasaray have taken the lead for his signature but nothing definitive as yet. Pabón is an attacking central midfielder, both robust and skilful, with more than an eye for goal. He is currently the second highest scorer in the Copa Libertadores with 7 goals. He made a name for himself with a 40 yard free kick against rivals Penarol (right). Pabón can operate both behind the strikers and in a more traditional central midfield role. He certainly has the attributes for European football and hopefully we will see him in the Premier League soon.

Leandro Damião - £15m approx. -Linked with various clubs.

Leandro Damião is a player in high demand. With Tottenham having bids of around £14m rejected and interest from Spain and Italy, it seems it will not be long before Damião graces our European shores. At 22 he is not a raw and unadulterated talent nor is he the finished article, but he is a natural born goalscorer. At nearly 6 ft 2 in Damião possesses strength and pace and would not come unstuck in the physical Premier League. His typically brilliant Brazilian touch and composure has led to an incredible 68 goals in 111 career games. In winning the Copa Libertadores in his debut season with Brazilian club Internacional,with a goal in the two legged final, Damião has become a household name on the flair continent. With comparisons to Edinson Cavani, Damião would be a cheaper option for clubs looking to bolster their attacks. He also has international experience with 8 caps for a nation with a wealth of goal scoring talent, in addition to his maiden Brazil goal which he happened to score at Craven Cottage against Ghana and a mesmerising performance against the old foe Argentina. Damião looks set to move and is certainly a man to look out for.
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Shinji Kagawa - Manchester United - £12m approx.


United's first ever Japanese player looks set to arrive from German champions Dortmund. The cynical view would be that of a long term replacement for Park Ji Sung, with an eye on Asian shirt sales over impact on the first team. However such cynicism would be naive, Kagawa has filled the boots of the often injured and highly lauded Mario Gotze. With back to back titles and a stellar performance in the German cup final thrashing of Bayern, Kagawa will bolster United's aging midfield. At the tender age of 23 he already has 30 caps for his country and nearly 100 career goals from advanced midfield and wide positions, 29 in his last 2 seasons on the continent along with 15 assists is an accomplished return. Much like Hernandez, Fergie will know how to get the best out of the Japanese wonderkid and he will have to work hard to garner a first team position, patience is a must and taking his chances in the first half of the season will be crucial to establishing himself in a competitive, if not star studded, Manchester squad. Overall he seems a good purchase and will have a part to play in the upcoming season.